A new report from the Coalition for Better Rail (CBR) is questioning the projected ridership and cost of the proposed ALTO high-speed rail project, saying the plan may not attract enough passengers to justify its price tag.
Dr. Andrew Hyett, spokesperson for the CBR, said the project’s target of 24 million annual trips by 2055 is based on assumptions that may not reflect travel patterns in Canada.
Hyett said the group’s analysis suggests actual ridership could be closer to 6 or 7 million trips per year, based on comparisons with other rail systems in car-dependent regions.
The report uses reference-class forecasting, comparing ALTO with similar rail projects around the world. Hyett said Canada faces challenges including lower population density, longer distances between cities and a strong reliance on personal vehicles.
He said the coalition is not against building new passenger rail but supports a different approach called High Performance Rail. The proposal would use speeds of about 200 km/h and rely more on existing transportation corridors.
Hyett said the alternative approach could reduce construction costs while improving service reliability and separating passenger and freight rail operations.
The report also argues future growth in electric vehicle use could affect some of the environmental benefits expected from high-speed rail.
The Coalition for Better Rail is calling on the federal government to review the project’s costs, ridership forecasts and long-term financial impacts before moving ahead.
